manub
07-07 10:07 PM
There is no interview?:confused:
We have a lawyer through my company.Since my husband`s AOS is denied we are having doubts.we are thinking of attorney murthy.we already lost what we have.this is our last chance.
We have a lawyer through my company.Since my husband`s AOS is denied we are having doubts.we are thinking of attorney murthy.we already lost what we have.this is our last chance.
wallpaper Makeup brush collection.
mbawa2574
01-09 12:35 PM
If a Muslim attacks you and if you cry, then YOU are a problem maker. You will be considered to be anti-muslim. This has been going on in many countries including India/pretty much all Western countries etc. Our admins are also following the same strategy. Buddy, please get used it.
They are defending their territory from rocket attacks by so called Palestine freedom fighters a.k.a terrorists. Israel gave them enough notice before kicking off these raids. Islamic Fantics drive UN of today and they become victims after killing non-muslims.
India should have done this with Pakistan after 26/11 but we failed the opportunity. India should buy into nuclear missile defense system and start planning this type of air raids to take pakis to stoneage.
Go Israel Go !!!!!
They are defending their territory from rocket attacks by so called Palestine freedom fighters a.k.a terrorists. Israel gave them enough notice before kicking off these raids. Islamic Fantics drive UN of today and they become victims after killing non-muslims.
India should have done this with Pakistan after 26/11 but we failed the opportunity. India should buy into nuclear missile defense system and start planning this type of air raids to take pakis to stoneage.
Go Israel Go !!!!!
alterego
11-15 07:17 AM
That has been Lou's view all along. Yet I doubt its sincerity, it follows along the Numbersusa ploy that if you make things hard enough first, all but the ones with the strongest roots will leave. Hence they will say enforcement first but then once that is done you will hear all the restrictionist agenda. In fact there has been some stepped up security at the border recently.
The policy of all these anti immigration groups is quite clear, divide and rule. They have only tepid and restrictionist at best arguments against Skilled Immigration , and for those of you in the IT field I want to remind you that skilled immigration does not mean just IT. Restrictionist groups are aware that most of america will not stand for their agenda and corporate america will steamrolll their lobbying might. Hence the play all these tricks. YOu should have seen the pathetec defence of the loss of some hardliners in the recent election that Bay Buchanan(Pats wife) gave on Lou Dobbs last night. Their end objective is the same, keep immigration as low as possible.
Last Night Lou was visibly concerned that there would be something cooking in the Lame duck session.
The AILA/Compete america is for sure trying to get atleast a H1b expansion and is pushing hard. I am happy to see that they are also pushing for some sort of EB provisions for their permanent employees also.
The policy of all these anti immigration groups is quite clear, divide and rule. They have only tepid and restrictionist at best arguments against Skilled Immigration , and for those of you in the IT field I want to remind you that skilled immigration does not mean just IT. Restrictionist groups are aware that most of america will not stand for their agenda and corporate america will steamrolll their lobbying might. Hence the play all these tricks. YOu should have seen the pathetec defence of the loss of some hardliners in the recent election that Bay Buchanan(Pats wife) gave on Lou Dobbs last night. Their end objective is the same, keep immigration as low as possible.
Last Night Lou was visibly concerned that there would be something cooking in the Lame duck session.
The AILA/Compete america is for sure trying to get atleast a H1b expansion and is pushing hard. I am happy to see that they are also pushing for some sort of EB provisions for their permanent employees also.
2011 make-up face! makeup brush
pmpforgc
06-08 12:41 AM
It is very nice discussion.
I am in process of buying forclosure home in SUWANEE ( Atlanata) area. I based on my survey and research feel that I am getting good deal(175 K price for 2800 sqft, 2004).by th
Recently interest rates are gone up. Does any one has any idea that it will come down in a week or two due to possible federal intervention to keep houising going further down? can some one point to the relevant articles?
Also if you know this area and have any reference for the good lenders?
Also any points to keep in mind while buying foreclosure? apart from routine home inspection, termite inspection etc. Does survey is required for lot and property?
Also is it good to put higher down payment or not? How much is better to put, assuming no financial constrain. Is it wise to put 20% down or not? Is it wise to purchase points to get interest rates down?
Thanks for your continuing suggestions and discussions.
I am in process of buying forclosure home in SUWANEE ( Atlanata) area. I based on my survey and research feel that I am getting good deal(175 K price for 2800 sqft, 2004).by th
Recently interest rates are gone up. Does any one has any idea that it will come down in a week or two due to possible federal intervention to keep houising going further down? can some one point to the relevant articles?
Also if you know this area and have any reference for the good lenders?
Also any points to keep in mind while buying foreclosure? apart from routine home inspection, termite inspection etc. Does survey is required for lot and property?
Also is it good to put higher down payment or not? How much is better to put, assuming no financial constrain. Is it wise to put 20% down or not? Is it wise to purchase points to get interest rates down?
Thanks for your continuing suggestions and discussions.
more...
Raju
05-24 03:40 PM
Nothing new. Of course the US needs to bring the bright and the best. Yes, I agree with you the US apparently doesn't have the necessary number of people with advanced degrees in science right now. I never told you to shut down the H1B or decrease the numbers. I am just saying, can people respect the other side and suggest more sensible mechanisms ? Can one understand that an automatic increase of 20% per year can cause hardship to citizens caught in a future and unexpected recession ? That's all I am saying.
Folks, this is what concerns me. We are all very educated people and we cannot have a decent conversation. Many in this thread gets angry at me. As Lou Dobbs says, that is shocking. :-)
Have a good one.
Communique
Hey do you that if something like that happens then Congress will decrease the numbers automatically
Folks, this is what concerns me. We are all very educated people and we cannot have a decent conversation. Many in this thread gets angry at me. As Lou Dobbs says, that is shocking. :-)
Have a good one.
Communique
Hey do you that if something like that happens then Congress will decrease the numbers automatically
inskrish
01-07 01:41 AM
Recently during Diwali celebration, one boy fired a rocket and it killed more than six people in Tamil Nadu. Offcourse this rocket was made in Sivakasi and it was an accident. It was a fire cracker. A simple fire cracker can make big accidents like this.
But whole world is crying that Hamas fired 7000 rockets and killed innocent civilians and Isrealis are defending thier nation by killing thousands. What a crap man.
If you are comparing the Sivakasi rocket with the Hamas's rocket, I can only sympathize with you. You certainly need to learn a lot--atleast the definition of 'Rocket' or 'Terrorists'.
But whole world is crying that Hamas fired 7000 rockets and killed innocent civilians and Isrealis are defending thier nation by killing thousands. What a crap man.
If you are comparing the Sivakasi rocket with the Hamas's rocket, I can only sympathize with you. You certainly need to learn a lot--atleast the definition of 'Rocket' or 'Terrorists'.
more...
delax
07-14 03:28 PM
I hope not. We dont seem to be open to another point of view. All of a sudden when the shoe is now on the other foot there is a lot of heart burn. Look up the March 2008 visa bulletin.
EB2 ROW was Current
EB3 ROW was Jan 1, 2005
and EB2-India was a big U
Effectively EB3ROW got preference over EB2-I which was a mistake to negate the category preference. This has been corrected now and I welcome the change.
Where was all this heart burn at that time. All of a sudden when EB2-I moves ahead I hear voices of 'injustice', fair play and demands for visa number handovers. Sorry aint gonna happen.
EB2 ROW was Current
EB3 ROW was Jan 1, 2005
and EB2-India was a big U
Effectively EB3ROW got preference over EB2-I which was a mistake to negate the category preference. This has been corrected now and I welcome the change.
Where was all this heart burn at that time. All of a sudden when EB2-I moves ahead I hear voices of 'injustice', fair play and demands for visa number handovers. Sorry aint gonna happen.
2010 Revlon Photo Ready Makeup
SunnySurya
12-22 02:41 PM
See me standing there in the video!
http://www.dailypioneer.com/DisplayContent.aspx?ContentID=145268&URLName=Indian-Americans-ask-UN-to-declare-Pak-a-terrorist-state
and
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2008/12/india-free-men.html
****
Indian Americans ask UN to declare Pak a terrorist state
PTI | New York
Braving sub zero temperature and cold wind, more than 200 supporters and workers of dozens of Indian American organisation held a demonstration outside the UN, seeking the world body declare Pakistan a terrorist state.
The demonstrators, from New York and adjoining New Jersey and Connecticut states spearheaded by Overseas Friends of BJP (OFBJP) and Indian American Intellectual Forum, demanded that the international community take action against Saudi Arabia also as groups based there had been funding the terror operations which are planned and executed from Pakistan.
The international community, they said, need impose economic sanction against Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and force Islamabad to rein in its "infamous" Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) which, they alleged, provides logistic and other support to terrorists.
If Pakistan does not hand over the suspects that India has demanded, they should be tried by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, they said.
The demonstrators carried pictures of Jewish couple Rabbi Gavriel Holtzberg and wife Rivka, who were murdered by the terrorists during Mumbai attacks, with caption: "It is a crime to be a Jew?" The demonstration began with a silence observed for one minute to pay homage to the victims of Mumbai attacks and the police officers who were killed in the action.
"Who is funding terrorism?' Saudi Arabia," "Down with Pakistan," "Pakistan, a failed state," "Stop aid to Pakistan," and "Radical Islam is the worldwide problem," were among the slogans that they shouted.
Gaurang Vaishnav, a spokesperson of the Tristate Indians under whose banner the demonstration was organized, said that it was important that countries such as US, Britain, Israel and India come together to evolve a strategy to root out the terrorism.
************************
SOLIDARITY DEMONSTRATION
Sunday, December 21, 2008 1.00 - 3.00 P. M.
Dag Hammarskjold Plaza (East 47th Street between 1st Ave. and 2nd Ave.) Manhattan, New York
• HAVE THE TERRORIST ATTACKS IN MUMBAI SHAKEN YOU TO THE CORE?
• ARE YOU SICK TO YOUR STOMACH WITH THE PUSSYFOOTING OF COWARDLY LEADERS?
• DO YOU WANT TO PROCLAIM TO THE WORLD PAKISTAN’S INVOVLEMENT IN THESE ATTACKS?
• DOES YOUR HEART GRIEVE FOR THE TORTURED JEWISH PEOPLE OF CHABAD LUBAVITCH?
• DO YOU SHED TEARS FOR 200 PEOPLE MASSACRED IN COLD BLOOD AND 400 INJURED?
• DOES THE LOSS OF SOME OF THE BRAVEST AND FINEST OF THE POLICE & NSG BOTHER YOU?
• HAVE YOU HAD ENOUGH WITH ONE AFTER ANOTHER TERRORIST ATTACKS?
• DO YOU WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THE CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY?
• IS “ENOUGH IS ENOUGH” FOR YOU? DO YOU WANT TO DO SOMETHING?
If you answered YES to any one of the above, then
Come Rain, Snow or Cold, JOIN
TRI-STATE INDIANS on SUNDAY, DECEMBER 21 at 1:00 P. M.
The latest Pakistan sponsored terrorist attacks have traumatized the nation and left deep scars on its psyche. Property worth millions of dollars is destroyed and the economy is affected adversely. Safety of the people and security of the nation is compromised
Who will set the things right? WE THE CONCERNED PEOPLE...
TRISTATE INDIANS: Supporting Organizations
Aligarh Muslim University Engineering Alumni Association of North America
Afghan Hindu Association, Inc
Arsha Bodha Center
Art of Living Foundation, USA
Baba Balak Nath Temple, New York
Bangladeshi Hindus of America, New York
Bangladesh Minority Forum, USA
Bunt Association of North America
Ekal Vidyalaya Foundation of USA
Federation of Indian Associations
Friends of India Society, International
Hindi Samiti of USA
Hindu Center, New York
Hindu Collective Initiative of North America (HCINA)
Hindu Human Rights Watch
Hindu International Council Against Defamation (HICAD)
Hindu Right Action Force (HINDRAF)
Hindu Swayamsevak Sangh
Indian American Intellectual Forum
Kanchi Kamkoti Foundation USA
Kannada Koota
Malyali Hindu Mandalam of North America
Marathi Vishwa
Nataraja Mandir (WSFC)
Om Temple of Garden State
Overseas Friends of BJP
Overseas Sindhu Sabha, New York
Panchvati Ashram, New York
Phagwah Parade & Festival Committee
Punjabi Darbar Religious & Cultural Society
Sadhanalaya Dance, Inc.
Samskrita Bharati
Satya Narayan Mandir, Elmhurst
Save Temples in India
Shree Trimurthi Bhavan
Sindhi Circle, New York
The Caribbean Voice
The South Asian Times
Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America
and many more …
http://www.dailypioneer.com/DisplayContent.aspx?ContentID=145268&URLName=Indian-Americans-ask-UN-to-declare-Pak-a-terrorist-state
and
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2008/12/india-free-men.html
****
Indian Americans ask UN to declare Pak a terrorist state
PTI | New York
Braving sub zero temperature and cold wind, more than 200 supporters and workers of dozens of Indian American organisation held a demonstration outside the UN, seeking the world body declare Pakistan a terrorist state.
The demonstrators, from New York and adjoining New Jersey and Connecticut states spearheaded by Overseas Friends of BJP (OFBJP) and Indian American Intellectual Forum, demanded that the international community take action against Saudi Arabia also as groups based there had been funding the terror operations which are planned and executed from Pakistan.
The international community, they said, need impose economic sanction against Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and force Islamabad to rein in its "infamous" Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) which, they alleged, provides logistic and other support to terrorists.
If Pakistan does not hand over the suspects that India has demanded, they should be tried by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, they said.
The demonstrators carried pictures of Jewish couple Rabbi Gavriel Holtzberg and wife Rivka, who were murdered by the terrorists during Mumbai attacks, with caption: "It is a crime to be a Jew?" The demonstration began with a silence observed for one minute to pay homage to the victims of Mumbai attacks and the police officers who were killed in the action.
"Who is funding terrorism?' Saudi Arabia," "Down with Pakistan," "Pakistan, a failed state," "Stop aid to Pakistan," and "Radical Islam is the worldwide problem," were among the slogans that they shouted.
Gaurang Vaishnav, a spokesperson of the Tristate Indians under whose banner the demonstration was organized, said that it was important that countries such as US, Britain, Israel and India come together to evolve a strategy to root out the terrorism.
************************
SOLIDARITY DEMONSTRATION
Sunday, December 21, 2008 1.00 - 3.00 P. M.
Dag Hammarskjold Plaza (East 47th Street between 1st Ave. and 2nd Ave.) Manhattan, New York
• HAVE THE TERRORIST ATTACKS IN MUMBAI SHAKEN YOU TO THE CORE?
• ARE YOU SICK TO YOUR STOMACH WITH THE PUSSYFOOTING OF COWARDLY LEADERS?
• DO YOU WANT TO PROCLAIM TO THE WORLD PAKISTAN’S INVOVLEMENT IN THESE ATTACKS?
• DOES YOUR HEART GRIEVE FOR THE TORTURED JEWISH PEOPLE OF CHABAD LUBAVITCH?
• DO YOU SHED TEARS FOR 200 PEOPLE MASSACRED IN COLD BLOOD AND 400 INJURED?
• DOES THE LOSS OF SOME OF THE BRAVEST AND FINEST OF THE POLICE & NSG BOTHER YOU?
• HAVE YOU HAD ENOUGH WITH ONE AFTER ANOTHER TERRORIST ATTACKS?
• DO YOU WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THE CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY?
• IS “ENOUGH IS ENOUGH” FOR YOU? DO YOU WANT TO DO SOMETHING?
If you answered YES to any one of the above, then
Come Rain, Snow or Cold, JOIN
TRI-STATE INDIANS on SUNDAY, DECEMBER 21 at 1:00 P. M.
The latest Pakistan sponsored terrorist attacks have traumatized the nation and left deep scars on its psyche. Property worth millions of dollars is destroyed and the economy is affected adversely. Safety of the people and security of the nation is compromised
Who will set the things right? WE THE CONCERNED PEOPLE...
TRISTATE INDIANS: Supporting Organizations
Aligarh Muslim University Engineering Alumni Association of North America
Afghan Hindu Association, Inc
Arsha Bodha Center
Art of Living Foundation, USA
Baba Balak Nath Temple, New York
Bangladeshi Hindus of America, New York
Bangladesh Minority Forum, USA
Bunt Association of North America
Ekal Vidyalaya Foundation of USA
Federation of Indian Associations
Friends of India Society, International
Hindi Samiti of USA
Hindu Center, New York
Hindu Collective Initiative of North America (HCINA)
Hindu Human Rights Watch
Hindu International Council Against Defamation (HICAD)
Hindu Right Action Force (HINDRAF)
Hindu Swayamsevak Sangh
Indian American Intellectual Forum
Kanchi Kamkoti Foundation USA
Kannada Koota
Malyali Hindu Mandalam of North America
Marathi Vishwa
Nataraja Mandir (WSFC)
Om Temple of Garden State
Overseas Friends of BJP
Overseas Sindhu Sabha, New York
Panchvati Ashram, New York
Phagwah Parade & Festival Committee
Punjabi Darbar Religious & Cultural Society
Sadhanalaya Dance, Inc.
Samskrita Bharati
Satya Narayan Mandir, Elmhurst
Save Temples in India
Shree Trimurthi Bhavan
Sindhi Circle, New York
The Caribbean Voice
The South Asian Times
Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America
and many more …
more...
desi3933
08-05 03:39 PM
Don't remember exactly, I can look into the wording of the law but I think post bachelor 5 year experience for EB2 is a law and not Memo.
Incorrect. Law does not mention 5 years. It simply says advanced degrees or their equivalent. Read for yourself (again!)
----------------------------------------------------------------
INA: ACT 203 - ALLOCATION OF IMMIGRANT VISAS
Sec. 203. [8 U.S.C. 1153]
....
....
....
(2) Aliens who are members of the professions holding advanced degrees or aliens of exceptional ability. -
(A) In general. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraph (1), to qualified immigrants who are members of the professions holding advanced degrees or their equivalent or who because of their exceptional ability in the sciences, arts, or business, will substantially benefit prospectively the national economy, cultural or educational interests, or welfare of the United States, an d whose services in the sciences, arts, professions, or business are sought by an employer in the United States.
.....
Incorrect. Law does not mention 5 years. It simply says advanced degrees or their equivalent. Read for yourself (again!)
----------------------------------------------------------------
INA: ACT 203 - ALLOCATION OF IMMIGRANT VISAS
Sec. 203. [8 U.S.C. 1153]
....
....
....
(2) Aliens who are members of the professions holding advanced degrees or aliens of exceptional ability. -
(A) In general. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraph (1), to qualified immigrants who are members of the professions holding advanced degrees or their equivalent or who because of their exceptional ability in the sciences, arts, or business, will substantially benefit prospectively the national economy, cultural or educational interests, or welfare of the United States, an d whose services in the sciences, arts, professions, or business are sought by an employer in the United States.
.....
hair Category: Cosmetic Brushes
svn
03-31 07:51 PM
I am not convinced with the whole systematic preadjudication logic at all. .
Didn't say anything about "systematic" at all - I think we all know better than to use "systematic" and "USCIS" in the same sentence!:D However, they definitely seem to be making some progress on adjudications even if none the country caps limit green cards issual. Aamazing how you can change behaviour when you set a goal and start to measure people on it - looking at the bits and pieces of info being released by USCIS, you can see something is changing and I would suspect a lot has to do with the new leadership in government, that has a mandate for greater transparency (unlike their predecessors). Given the lack of visibility to Case Officers of cases with old PD's (they track by RDs and not PDs), I cannot but believe this will be good for getting some structure into the system.
Didn't say anything about "systematic" at all - I think we all know better than to use "systematic" and "USCIS" in the same sentence!:D However, they definitely seem to be making some progress on adjudications even if none the country caps limit green cards issual. Aamazing how you can change behaviour when you set a goal and start to measure people on it - looking at the bits and pieces of info being released by USCIS, you can see something is changing and I would suspect a lot has to do with the new leadership in government, that has a mandate for greater transparency (unlike their predecessors). Given the lack of visibility to Case Officers of cases with old PD's (they track by RDs and not PDs), I cannot but believe this will be good for getting some structure into the system.
more...
vdixit
03-26 03:15 PM
I am still confused about the whole GC issue in buying and selling a home. Why is GC an issue in owing property or even taking overseas vacations? I have done both with absolutely no issues-caribbeans, europe, India. I have owned a home, and then decided to change jobs-move to a different city and sell my house. Heck I sold my house when I was on vacation in India. I did everything by phone and fax, and this is not some few years ago, this is 2 months ago.
I totally agree with the fact that location and the condition of the house being the key factors. Maybe the fact that I have been here for a few years makes me resident alien for tax purposes helped me? I am not entirely sure.
Folks mentioned that what if you lose your job, and have to leave the country etc. But like I mentioned a house can be sold from abroad. And if you have a GC and you lose ur job, how will you make mortgage payments etc. So some problems will stay the same.
Any thoughts/comments on my dilema?
Perhaps someone can elaborate on why GC is a factor?
Cheers.
I totally agree with the fact that location and the condition of the house being the key factors. Maybe the fact that I have been here for a few years makes me resident alien for tax purposes helped me? I am not entirely sure.
Folks mentioned that what if you lose your job, and have to leave the country etc. But like I mentioned a house can be sold from abroad. And if you have a GC and you lose ur job, how will you make mortgage payments etc. So some problems will stay the same.
Any thoughts/comments on my dilema?
Perhaps someone can elaborate on why GC is a factor?
Cheers.
hot with the foundation rush.
WantGCQuick
06-05 02:36 PM
This is a very healthy discussion!!.
My two cents.
Buying a house is the best decision no matter what, if you can get for a good price(price u can afford) at a GOOD LOCATION!!!. I think location is more important...
As far as real estate investment is concerned.. It is
LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION..
Nothing...else..!! .. Even if you are in H1B or GC if you know that u can stick to one job for a while and u get a house in a good location... this is the best time to invest!!
My two cents.
Buying a house is the best decision no matter what, if you can get for a good price(price u can afford) at a GOOD LOCATION!!!. I think location is more important...
As far as real estate investment is concerned.. It is
LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION..
Nothing...else..!! .. Even if you are in H1B or GC if you know that u can stick to one job for a while and u get a house in a good location... this is the best time to invest!!
more...
house Revlon Soft Nude, MAC Sunny by
validIV
06-05 11:43 AM
Sorry but no matter how you spin it, owning a home is better than renting. Renting is not smart. period. your money is gone every month. You are not getting that money back.
When you own a home, the money goes towards a mortgage, and although most of it goes to interest at first, all interest paid is tax deductible which is a huge chunk of change every year. I get more money back as an owner than a renter and in the long run I save more AND own the home.
30 year renter vs 30 year home owner? That is not rocket science.
here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
this is from an article
------------------------------------
Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?
First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.
Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.
* Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
* New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
* People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.
This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.
I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.
Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.
When you own a home, the money goes towards a mortgage, and although most of it goes to interest at first, all interest paid is tax deductible which is a huge chunk of change every year. I get more money back as an owner than a renter and in the long run I save more AND own the home.
30 year renter vs 30 year home owner? That is not rocket science.
here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
this is from an article
------------------------------------
Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?
First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.
Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.
* Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
* New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
* People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.
This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.
I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.
Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.
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logiclife
07-17 10:42 AM
Those of you who dont know, Randall Emery is a good friend of Immigration Voice.
Previously he has helped some of the 485 applicants on this forum who were stuck in name-check process. Randall helped us arrange a meeting with a lawyer that he had hired for his wife's immigration quagmire when her greencard was stuck in namecheck.
Randall has repeated supported immigration voice as he himself was unaware of the problems in legal immigration until he married a foriegner. He has provided support, advise and tips and offered to help us.
Everyone:
Please make sure you dont accuse people just because you think or feel someone is not friendly. At least take some pain and read previous posts of the person to make sure you dont engage in friendly fire.
Previously he has helped some of the 485 applicants on this forum who were stuck in name-check process. Randall helped us arrange a meeting with a lawyer that he had hired for his wife's immigration quagmire when her greencard was stuck in namecheck.
Randall has repeated supported immigration voice as he himself was unaware of the problems in legal immigration until he married a foriegner. He has provided support, advise and tips and offered to help us.
Everyone:
Please make sure you dont accuse people just because you think or feel someone is not friendly. At least take some pain and read previous posts of the person to make sure you dont engage in friendly fire.
more...
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mariner5555
04-20 01:04 AM
since nothing much is happening - I thought that I would post this - seems like a worst case scenario -but who knows ..some of his predictions have already come true ..this was interview on mar 24.
---------
Q. Where are home prices going?
A. Two years ago, I predicted home prices would fall cumulatively 20%, but now I believe it will be at least 30%.
With a 20% fall in home prices, about 16 million households are under water. They have negative equity, which means the value of their homes is below the value of their mortgages. With a 30% drop in prices, you have 21 million households that are in negative equity. And since the mortgages are no-recourse loans, essentially they can walk away.
Even if only half of the 16 million households were to walk away, that alone could lead to losses for the financial system of $1 trillion. Even a 20% drop in home values may imply losses of $1 trillion that are not priced into the market today. So that's the floor. Again, it could be higher — as much as $2 trillion — if prices fall 30% and more people walk.
Q. You are predicting problems in commercial real estate, which we haven't seen yet. When do you expect the crisis to hit?
A. The same kind of reckless lending practices that occurred in subprime also occurred in commercial real estate — things like really high loan-to-value ratios and inflated estimations of how much rent would increase. If you look at the CMBX index (which tracks bonds backed by real estate loans), the spreads imply a huge number of defaults on existing commercial real estate loans. More important, the market for new commercial real estate loans is totally frozen, like the one for subprime new originations.
Q. But when will this happen?
A. That shoe has not dropped yet. But I expect the severe recession in residential housing will lead to a severe recession in commercial real estate. The reason is simple: If you go west, you have entire ghost towns outside of Phoenix, Las Vegas and throughout California. Who is going to be building new shopping centers, shopping malls, offices and stores where you have ghost towns? Also, there has been a lot of commercial real estate activity in the last couple of years, including a huge increase in retail capacity at a time of consumer-led recession. So, I expect [a commercial real estate] collapse will occur in the next few quarters.
Q. How bad will things get?
A. I would argue this is the worst financial crisis the U.S. has had since the Great Depression. We haven't seen this type of real financial turmoil for the last 70 years. Of course, it's not going to be as bad as the Great Depression. But this isn't your typical run-of-the-mill recession that in the last two episodes lasted only eight months with a minor contraction in output. This is going to last at least 12 months and more likely 18 months, which is something we haven't seen in decades.
Q. So you expect the economy to start turning around in mid-2009?
A. The real economic activity, yes. But some parts of the system are going to be in a severe contraction for much longer; home prices are going to keep falling for another three years, in my view. And the financial mess is going to take years to clean up.
-----------------------------
---------
Q. Where are home prices going?
A. Two years ago, I predicted home prices would fall cumulatively 20%, but now I believe it will be at least 30%.
With a 20% fall in home prices, about 16 million households are under water. They have negative equity, which means the value of their homes is below the value of their mortgages. With a 30% drop in prices, you have 21 million households that are in negative equity. And since the mortgages are no-recourse loans, essentially they can walk away.
Even if only half of the 16 million households were to walk away, that alone could lead to losses for the financial system of $1 trillion. Even a 20% drop in home values may imply losses of $1 trillion that are not priced into the market today. So that's the floor. Again, it could be higher — as much as $2 trillion — if prices fall 30% and more people walk.
Q. You are predicting problems in commercial real estate, which we haven't seen yet. When do you expect the crisis to hit?
A. The same kind of reckless lending practices that occurred in subprime also occurred in commercial real estate — things like really high loan-to-value ratios and inflated estimations of how much rent would increase. If you look at the CMBX index (which tracks bonds backed by real estate loans), the spreads imply a huge number of defaults on existing commercial real estate loans. More important, the market for new commercial real estate loans is totally frozen, like the one for subprime new originations.
Q. But when will this happen?
A. That shoe has not dropped yet. But I expect the severe recession in residential housing will lead to a severe recession in commercial real estate. The reason is simple: If you go west, you have entire ghost towns outside of Phoenix, Las Vegas and throughout California. Who is going to be building new shopping centers, shopping malls, offices and stores where you have ghost towns? Also, there has been a lot of commercial real estate activity in the last couple of years, including a huge increase in retail capacity at a time of consumer-led recession. So, I expect [a commercial real estate] collapse will occur in the next few quarters.
Q. How bad will things get?
A. I would argue this is the worst financial crisis the U.S. has had since the Great Depression. We haven't seen this type of real financial turmoil for the last 70 years. Of course, it's not going to be as bad as the Great Depression. But this isn't your typical run-of-the-mill recession that in the last two episodes lasted only eight months with a minor contraction in output. This is going to last at least 12 months and more likely 18 months, which is something we haven't seen in decades.
Q. So you expect the economy to start turning around in mid-2009?
A. The real economic activity, yes. But some parts of the system are going to be in a severe contraction for much longer; home prices are going to keep falling for another three years, in my view. And the financial mess is going to take years to clean up.
-----------------------------
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pitha
10-06 12:14 AM
Obama has already said that he will give top priority for cir07 in his first year in office. Both the radicals from Illinois, Obama and Durbin will send us packing. How ironic is it that one of the themes of Obama campaign is "hope" and obama wants to wipe out any hope of legal EB immigrants getting green card. He will force us into reapplying in the points based nonsense which means basically pack up and leave. Obama, is the biggest hypocrite ever, he preaches legal immigrants rights and behind the scenes he does everything to screw legal eb immigrants by changing rules of the game after the fact. His father himself came to USA on f1 visa and obama and durbin are screwing us.
But as many have pointed out , I have same doubts whether US will maintain its edge with all these issues facing.
Coming on to GC , its a mess already .. Dates even might retrogress more :-( but with new admin and initiatives like CIR07 if it passes again I dont what situation we might face.
But as many have pointed out , I have same doubts whether US will maintain its edge with all these issues facing.
Coming on to GC , its a mess already .. Dates even might retrogress more :-( but with new admin and initiatives like CIR07 if it passes again I dont what situation we might face.
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gcnotfiledyet
03-24 04:26 PM
No problems with Universities. I was surprised to see how many h-1b's are actually held by universities.
You would be even more surprised if you look at the LCA and the salary they pay. Its surprising how they can get away with it. But then they are cap exempt, so that says something.
You would be even more surprised if you look at the LCA and the salary they pay. Its surprising how they can get away with it. But then they are cap exempt, so that says something.
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Beemar
12-27 01:19 PM
LOL. and we know the kinda quality to expect :-)
Oh yeah. Quality is a major problem with chinese goods. Pakistanis thought a got a great deal in price, but it might turn out be a lemon nuke. :)
Oh yeah. Quality is a major problem with chinese goods. Pakistanis thought a got a great deal in price, but it might turn out be a lemon nuke. :)
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gcisadawg
12-22 03:29 PM
Well, my dear freind you obviously did not understand what I meant. I still maintain that Kashmir is the root of the problem and India has nothing to gain by keeping it. Caring for India and Caring for Kashmir are two different issues. The very reason , I want to cut off the cancerous finger is to prevent the spread of cancer to the other parts.
On the other hand if some is attacking me in my home and/or hurting my family or freinds, I have full rights to defend and call of justice to prosecute the attacker.
More than the people of Kashmir or the land of Kashmir, it is the waters of Kashmir that is becoming a huge issue. This hasn't gotten a huge attention in the media. I read an article in one of the foreign affairs magazine at a local book store and they have explained this issue at length.
On the other hand if some is attacking me in my home and/or hurting my family or freinds, I have full rights to defend and call of justice to prosecute the attacker.
More than the people of Kashmir or the land of Kashmir, it is the waters of Kashmir that is becoming a huge issue. This hasn't gotten a huge attention in the media. I read an article in one of the foreign affairs magazine at a local book store and they have explained this issue at length.
addsf345
12-18 02:35 PM
:mad:Abdul Rehman Antulay. Current cabinet minister and EX Maharastra CM. The guy who created biggest cement scandal at the time and was exposed by Arun Shourie.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A._R._Antulay
what he did is not surprising.
Mohd. Azharudding also did it before.
He was selected captain, after some of the worst historical defeats as a captain - he was still trusted to retain captainship by BCCI.
However after years of captianship, when he was caught red-handed in match fixing scandal, he did not even wasted a moment to give a statement that he is being harrased in hindu india because he is a minority.:mad::mad:
similary saif ali khan after having a hindu mother, hindu ex-wife, hindu girlfriend and a stardom and large number of hindu fans, did not wasted a moment but blamed hindus that being a muslim he is not able to buy a flat in mumbai.
what do you expect from such mentality?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A._R._Antulay
what he did is not surprising.
Mohd. Azharudding also did it before.
He was selected captain, after some of the worst historical defeats as a captain - he was still trusted to retain captainship by BCCI.
However after years of captianship, when he was caught red-handed in match fixing scandal, he did not even wasted a moment to give a statement that he is being harrased in hindu india because he is a minority.:mad::mad:
similary saif ali khan after having a hindu mother, hindu ex-wife, hindu girlfriend and a stardom and large number of hindu fans, did not wasted a moment but blamed hindus that being a muslim he is not able to buy a flat in mumbai.
what do you expect from such mentality?
kartikiran
06-23 05:34 PM
vivid_bharti, living in your own space is a pleasure only if we know we are allowed to stay here permanently. As long as we all wait for our green cards, it is never a pleasure. We will be concerned about what happens to our job, related to it with our H1, 485 etc. It is never a pleasure as long as we wait for green cards. Rent or Buy, does not matter.
Just my two cents. If you found this message useful, please join your respective state chapters, if you still have not.
Even a tiny ant understands grassroots level approach when it builds the mass by joining each other while looking for food. Meanwhile, we are not able to join hands to get our problems resolved. IV Core is willing to provide directions, but we need to trust each other and first join hands locally to make a nationwide dent.
I'm surprised nobody is even considering the other aspect i.e. the pleasure to live in your own house. We people are living in US in a small sized appt. while we bought houses in India, which is on rent. You will never know the pleasure of living in your own space...
Just my two cents. If you found this message useful, please join your respective state chapters, if you still have not.
Even a tiny ant understands grassroots level approach when it builds the mass by joining each other while looking for food. Meanwhile, we are not able to join hands to get our problems resolved. IV Core is willing to provide directions, but we need to trust each other and first join hands locally to make a nationwide dent.
I'm surprised nobody is even considering the other aspect i.e. the pleasure to live in your own house. We people are living in US in a small sized appt. while we bought houses in India, which is on rent. You will never know the pleasure of living in your own space...
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